| An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions | |
Hao SW(郝圣旺) ; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek; Hao, SW (reprint author), Yanshan Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Mech, Qinhuangdao, Peoples R China.
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| Source Publication | JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
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| 2017-09-01 | |
| Volume | 343Pages:252-262 |
| ISSN | 0377-0273 |
| Abstract | Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Omega Omega(similar to 1) = C (t(f) - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where LI represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Keyword | Volcanic Eruptions Time-to-accelerating-failure Creep Accelerating Precursor |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.07.009 |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| Indexed By | SCI ; EI |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS ID | WOS:000411305700018 |
| WOS Keyword | SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ; FORECAST METHOD FFM ; ROCK FRACTURE ; LANDSLIDES ; EARTHQUAKES ; MONTSERRAT ; PATTERNS ; MEXICO ; COLIMA ; MODEL |
| WOS Research Area | Geology |
| WOS Subject | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| Funding Organization | National Natural Science Foundation of China(11672258) ; National Basic Research Program of China(2013 CB834100) ; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(D2015203398) |
| Classification | 二类 |
| Ranking | 1 |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/70075 |
| Collection | 非线性力学国家重点实验室 |
| Corresponding Author | Hao, SW (reprint author), Yanshan Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Mech, Qinhuangdao, Peoples R China. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Hao SW,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek,et al. An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions[J]. JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,2017,343:252-262. |
| APA | 郝圣旺,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek,&Hao, SW .(2017).An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions.JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,343,252-262. |
| MLA | 郝圣旺,et al."An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions".JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH 343(2017):252-262. |
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| JouArt-2017-138.pdf（2177KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Download | |
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