我国拥有辽阔的海域和漫长的海岸线，是遭受海洋灾害最严重的国家之一，其中风暴潮灾害位居所有海洋灾害之首。历史上，单次风暴潮曾经吞噬数以数十万计人的生命；即使在风暴潮预报技术取得显著进步的今天，我国每年风暴潮灾害损失依旧高达百亿元量级，单次风暴潮灾害仍可造成数百人死亡；未来，随着工业化与城镇化发展，同时叠加海平面上升、台风强度增强等负面因素，沿海地区将面临更加严酷的风暴潮灾害挑战。

  本文以我国浙闽沿海这一风暴潮灾害严重区域为研究对象，基于ADCIRC+SWAN耦合模式，构建了风暴增水-天文潮-海浪三因素耦合效应分析模型。以印度洋台风“Thane”和西北太平洋台风“桑美”作用下的风暴潮增水问题作为验证，验证结果表明模拟值与监测站观测值吻合良好。在此基础上，重点分析了台风登陆期间，风暴增水-天文潮-海浪三因素耦合效应与气候变化背景下的风暴潮淹没致灾问题。本文研究所获得的结果包括：

  以“桑美”为例，研究了风暴增水-天文潮-海浪三因素耦合时天文潮以及海浪耦合效应对实际水位的影响。结果表明，相较海浪耦合效应，天文潮耦合效应对实际水位的影响更为显著；同时，天文潮耦合效应对台风路径南北两侧增水均有明显影响，但台风路径以北的影响更强（可达29%）；海浪耦合效应的影响主要发生在台风路径以北区域（可达11%），台风路径以南基本无影响。

  给出了登陆潮位、台风移速和台风强度变化对风暴增水-天文潮-海浪三因素耦合效应的影响规律。结果表明：若不考虑三因素耦合中的天文潮耦合效应，台风在天文高潮和低潮登陆时，实际水位将分别被高估和低估；波致增水幅值随着台风移速增大而增大；台风强度变化（10%以内）对实际水位影响显著，但对三因素耦合中的天文潮以及海浪耦合效应影响均不明显。

  分析了气候变化下浙闽沿海的风暴增水和淹没致灾情况。结果表明30年和100年重现期，浙闽沿海地区沿岸潜在风暴潮最大水位分别可达6.82和7.63 m，对应的淹没面积分别约1095和1237平方公里。相关结果有望为当地风暴潮防灾减灾及风险评估提供参考。

  With vast sea area and long coastline, China is one of the countries suffering from severe marine disasters, in which storm tide ranks first. A single storm tide event can claim thousands of lives in the past. Though remarkable progress has been achieved at present, the annual economic losses due to storm tide are still as high as ten billion Yuan on average. Moreover, hundreds of death toll can still be caused by a single storm tide event. In future, the coastal regions would face more serious storm tide disaster owing to the industrialization and urbanization there and the tendency of sea level rise and typhoon intensification.

  Focusing on the storm tide prone Zhe-min coast, an analysis model considering surge-tide-wave coupling effects was established based on the the tightly coupled tide-wave-surge model ADCIRC+SWAN. Storm tide by tropical cyclones Thane on the India Ocean and Saomai on the Northwest Pacific Ocean are simulated and validated, a good agreement with the in-situ observation was obtained. Then, the surge-tide-wave coupling effects and the storm tide inundation under the background of climate change were presented and discussed. The main results of this thesis include that:

  Taking Saomai as the base tropical cyclone, the impact of tide coupling effect and wave coupling effect in surge-tide-wave coupling on the total water level was studied. The results show that, astronomical tide coupling effect has a more prominent influence on the total water level than wave coupling effect. The astronomical tide coupling effect on regions north and south of the typhoon path are both notable, more specifically, the contribution of astronomical tide to the total water level north of the typhoon path is more significant (about 29%) than south. While, wave coupling effect is signifacnt only north of a typhoon path (about 11%).

  The impacts of influential factors, i.e. the astronomical tide phase when typhoon landing, the migration speed and intensity of tropical cyclone, on the surge-tide-wave coupling effects are studied. The results show that the water level tends to be underestimated (overestimated) when tropical cyclone lands during astronomical low (high) tide without considering the tide coupling effect; the peak of wave-induced surge increases with typhoon migration speed; the variation of typhoon intensity (<10%) has sinificant influence on the total water level, but it has negectable influence on the coupling effects of surge-tide-wave.

  The situations of storm tide and inundation of Zhe-min coast under the background of climate change were analyzed. The results show that after 30 and 100 years, the potential maximal water level along Zhe-min coast would be 6.82 and 7.63 m, respectively, and the corresponding inundated area would be 1095 and 1237 square kilometers, respectively. The aforementioned results are expected to provide reference for the prevention, reduction and risk assessment for storm surge disasters in Zhe-min coast.