Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty | |
Zou, Qingrong1; Wen JC(温济慈)2,3 | |
Source Publication | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE |
2023-12-01 | |
Volume | 177Pages:11 |
ISSN | 0142-1123 |
Abstract | Reliability analysis of engineering components or structures heavily relies on accurately estimating the fatigue properties of materials. However, significant uncertainty exists regarding the distribution form and value in fatigue data, posing significant challenges in constructing a robust probability fatigue model. To address this challenge, we propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to incorporate model form uncertainty into the estimation of the probability density of fatigue life. The performance of BMA was verified through numerical experiments using both simulated and experimental data. The results highlight the robustness and reliability of BMA compared to individual models, as it effectively incorporates model form uncertainty. The proposed BMA model offers a general framework for developing probabilistic fatigue models with high robustness and accuracy in their predictions. This model contributes to advancing the field of reliability analysis by addressing the challenges posed by uncertainty and enhancing the understanding of fatigue properties for engineering components and structures. |
Keyword | N curves Fatigue design Bayesian model averaging Probability distribution model form uncertainty |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2023.107955 |
Indexed By | SCI ; EI |
Language | 英语 |
WOS ID | WOS:001097670500001 |
WOS Keyword | FATIGUE LIFE ; PREDICTION ; INFERENCE |
WOS Research Area | Engineering ; Materials Science |
WOS Subject | Engineering, Mechanical ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary |
Funding Project | Science Challenge Project[TZ2018002] ; R & D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission[KM202311232008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12002343] ; Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by the Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics[CSTAM2022-XSC-QN4] |
Funding Organization | Science Challenge Project ; R & D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by the Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics |
Classification | 一类 |
Ranking | 1 |
Contributor | 温济慈 |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | 期刊论文 |
Identifier | http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/93415 |
Collection | 非线性力学国家重点实验室 |
Corresponding Author | Wen JC(温济慈) |
Affiliation | 1.Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Engn Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zou, Qingrong,Wen JC. Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE,2023,177:11.Rp_Au:温济慈 |
APA | Zou, Qingrong,&Wen JC.(2023).Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE,177,11. |
MLA | Zou, Qingrong,et al."Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE 177(2023):11. |
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Jp2023Fa131.pdf(4441KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Download |
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